Predicting the Future - Minor League Watch for the month of April

It's always important to keep an eye on the major league farm systems to see if you can snag the next big prospect before everyone else in your league. Having this year's Brett Lawrie may or may not propel your team to the playoffs, so knowing at least a handful of prospects to watch is very important. Below I've listed some of the nation's top prospects and provided a rough idea of when they might be called up.

1. Bryce Harper (OF, Nationals) - Although Mike Trout may be called up earlier, no one is going to question the ability between the two. Harper was with the Nationals in Spring Training and Davey Johnson initially thought that he would be able to make the club as their starting right fielder. After a mini slump and a few days off for injuries, Harper was sent back to the minors. So far in AAA ball he's struggled somewhat, batting just .245 so far in this early season. It doesn't appear that the Nationals are in any hurry to call him up, but assuming that he turns things around, we could see him make the big club sometime after June.

2. Mike Trout (OF, Angels) - As Matthew Berry from ESPN would say, Trout has a "little bit of pop" and the wheels to eventually steal 25-30 bags. Trout has been absolutely on fire in AAA, already having an 11 game hitting streak to go along with a handful of homers, runs and steals. Anaheim currently has a logjam of players clogging Trout's promotion, but has been actively trying to trade Bobby Abreu or Vernon Wells to another club to make room. Its doubtful that Wells would move anytime soon because of his horrible contract, but Abreu is a possibility, should another club have an injury. Since they are already jumping at the bit to promote him, keep an eye out for injuries around the league and add him when another big name OF goes down.

3. Trevor Bauer (SP, Diamondbacks) - Widely regarded as the best pitching prospect in the majors currently, Bauer possesses a plus fastball and a hammer for a curve, to go along with two other average pitches. In his current stint at AAA, he has already struck out 20 batters in 15 innings, but needs to work on his control before he gets promoted. He's been compared to a younger Clayton Kershaw, in terms of a comparison. Although Josh Collementer has struggled so far, expect Arizona to promote their other top pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs before Bauer makes the club. Once he figures everything out though, watch out, he's filthy.

4. Nolan Arenado (3B, Rockies) - Arenado is currently tearing it up at AAA, hitting a ridiculous .371 through his first 9 games with a homer already. Coming off of a strong 2010 when he had 122 RBI in 134 games at High-A ball, the Rockies have a plan for their #1 prospect. I wouldn't expect him to come up until later on in the year (closer to late July or August) but once he does, especially in keeper leagues, grab him if you need help at 3B.

5. Brad Peacock (SP, Athletics) - So far in AAA Peacock is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 17Ks in 19 IP. Although Tyler Ross was the Athletics last call-up for their 5th starter, Peacock shouldn't be held back much longer. Although not a fireballer, Peacock has above average control and should help out your WHIP, if that is a category in your league. Expect him to be called up shortly after June to avoid penalties to the big club, since Billy Beane is a cheapskate.

I'd also strongly recommend reading or subscribing to Keith Law at ESPN for his tweets and information. He's widely regarded as one of the best analysts to review upcoming prospects.

Drinking the Health Potion - Injury updates for 4/19/2012

It certainly seems like we have seen our fair-share of early season injuries so far in 2012. The most notable position to be hit so far has definitely been at relief pitcher with three of the top ten closers out with season-ending Tommy John surgery (Brian Wilson, Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria).

Several other relatively high-profile players are currently on the disabled list for a number of reasons, so you may be wondering how much longer you will have to wait to see them in action again. Luckily Roto Wizard has taken the guesswork out of that for you, so read on my friend and lets take a look at them together.

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, Red Sox) - Jacoby was recently placed on the DL on Friday the 13th (go figure) when he suffered a subluxation of his right shoulder. This happens when the humerus bone goes out of the joint but does not completely dislocate. Although this injury doesn't need any surgery, Ellsbury is still expected to miss at least the next 6-8 weeks. Since this injury is on his throwing shoulder, it will also effect his fielding and hitting. His normal aggressive center outfield play may need to be cut down while the injury heals, and I wouldn't expect him to dive and go for balls that he normally would. It may also effect his swing since this is his lead shoulder, and it may force him to alter things to make it more of a comfortable swing.

Outlook: Negative

2. Michael Morse (1B-OF, Nationals) - Morse was put on the DL back in Spring Training due to a strained lat muscle, which was causing pain for him below his right shoulder blade. Initially Morse was supposed to be cleared in time to start the season right away, but various set-backs have forced his return to be delayed. After experiencing tightness again last week, Morse underwent further tests and the results were sent to the dreaded Dr.James Andrews. No updated have been released since then and the team's timetable on his return has now been changed to "indefinitely".

Outlook: Negative

3. Chris Young (OF, Diamondbacks) - Young injured his shoulder while diving into the center field wall while making an amazing catch on 4/17. The injury initially didn't seem to be a big issue since he was raising his arm above his head and moving his shoulder around. After an MRI was performed on 4/18 he received both good and bad news. The good news? His collarbone showed no fractures and there was no extended structural damage to the shoulder. The bad news? He experienced a deep bruise and a slightly torn AC joint in his right shoulder. After being told that the team should place him on the DL, Young resisted saying that he could play through the injury, but the Diamondbacks relied on common sense and placed him on the DL. He should be able to come back in 2-3 weeks and expects to make a full recovery. I asked Stephania Bell from ESPN about his timeframe and she gave me the following info:

"Hard to know an exact timeframe on the length of the DL stint, but it was a good move to allow recovery time so it wouldn't alter his swing".

Sounds like moderately good news.

Outlook: Positive

4. David Wright (3B, Mets) - David has a hairline fracture in the middle joint of his right pinkie finger, an injury he sustained while diving headfirst into first base on a pickoff attempt. The Mets injury staff has long been criticized for mis-diagnosing injuries and providing incorrect timeframes, but in this case they didn't mess up too badly. Wright initially sat out a few games but was encouraged by management to try and test it out. The result? A HR in his first at-bat and he's been on fire ever since. His pinkie will heal on its own over the course of time and he should be just fine.

Outlook: Positive

5. Brett Gardner (OF,Yankees) - Brett was recently placed on the DL for a strained right elbow he suffered while making a diving catch in the outfield. Although it wasn't enough to initially be considered serious, after a further look Gardner is now receiving more extensive tests on the elbow to see if further damage was caused. His outlook is currently somewhat murky because we haven't received an update from the MRI which is being performed, but after a video review of the injury it didn't appear to be terribly serious. Expect him to be out about 3 weeks, barring negative news.

Outlook: Positive

Peering into the Crystal Ball – Waiver Wire Adds for the 4/16- 4/22 Week

One of the keys to being a successful fantasy sports manager is to be active in monitoring your league’s waiver wire to see if you can make improvements to your team. You don’t want to drop players in haste, but you don’t also want to wait too long to scoop up a hot free agent who may bust out for a big year.

Below are some of the most added players in 10-14 team baseball leagues so far this week. (This is assuming you are in a mixed league). I’ve indicated their current ownership percentage next to their name, depending on the provider for your league.

1. Santiago Casilla, RP Giants (36% CBS, 4.4% ESPN)- Initially after Brian Wilson was diagnosed with structural damage in his throwing shoulder which required Tommy John surgery, Bruce Bochy thought that he was going with the dreaded “closer by committee”. Since then he’s backed off from that stance and handed the closer job to Casilla and kept Sergio Romo in the 8^th inning role. Casilla took over for Wilson late last year when he was also dealing with shoulder problems and converted 6/7 opportunities. With a mid 90’s fastball, filthy slider and above-average changeup, Casilla is a must-add for teams who have faced closer issues so far this year.
2. Jordan Schafer, OF Astros (53% CBS, 43.5% ESPN)- A post-hype sleeper candidate lands at the #2 spot. Schafer has had a host of off-field problems but finally landed in a spot willing to give him a starting gig in Houston. So far he’s rewarded owners with 5 stolen bases and a decent amount of runs scored. He’s leading off for a fairly thin lineup and needs to improve his batting average and on-base percentage to increase his stolen base opportunities, but the upside is here.
3. J.D. Martinez, OF Astros (91% CBS, 88.2% ESPN) – Martinez burst onto the scene late last year and hit well at the end of the season with a cup of coffee in the big leagues. He has the potential to hit 20-25 HRs and will really benefit from the short porch in left field at Minute Maid Park. Mostly targeted in drafts as a late-round flyer, he has performed very well so far and has hit safely in all of Houston’s games this season. Owners should look to keep him active during his hot streak.
4. Lance Lynn, SP Cardinals (70% CBS, 28.3% ESPN) – Lynn is attempting to transition from a RP to a SP with the Cardinals. He has started the season off with two relatively successful outings, allowing only 1 ER in both of his starts. He hasn’t made it past the 6^th inning yet, but he’ll work deeper in games as his control improves and he gets a feel for the starting role. He’s boasted a 13-3 K:BB ratio so far, and at only age 24 he has a very live arm. Intriguing flier.
5. Danny Duffy, SP Royals (46% CBS, 5.1% ESPN) – Duffy has opened the season with two quality starts against Detroit and at Oakland. Through 12.2 innings he’s tallied 15Ks and has a 2.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Prior to the start of the season his ADP was around 260 or so, but Duffy will provide a substantial bargain at a discounted price. Expect a high amount of strikeouts from this flamethrower and continue to monitor his progress, as he’s still just 23 years old.
6.  Nolan Reimold, OF Orioles (47% CBS, 16.6% ESPN) - Reimold has been absolutely on fire so far this week, hitting in eight straight games and homering for the fourth game in a row on Tuesday night. He also has multiple hits three of his last four games. While I wouldn't expect the power surge to continue like this, Reimold could reach the 20HR mark this season, and provide as a valuable backup OF or 4th-5th OF for leagues with 3+ slots.

Best of luck to all the teams out there this week,

~ The Roto Wizard

Quality Starts vs. Wins - Which statistic more accurately reflects a pitcher's effectiveness?

Quality Starts vs. Wins

Since Daniel Okrent’s memorable plane flight in 1980 when he created the idea of Rotisserie baseball, the statistics which fantasy baseball players use to measure the success of pitchers has mostly unchanged. Wins, Saves, ERA and WHIP have been used as the main four categories to judge a pitcher’s value to their respective fantasy team. Although those four categories covered enough initially when fantasy baseball was created, due to the rise of sabermetricians, or people who attempt to measure success in baseball through objective evidence, other statistics have been created to measure a pitcher’s overall “worth” to a fantasy team, the most notable being quality starts (QS). The statistic was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer, and is as "a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs." 

Cases can be made for both statistics in terms of their viability of use for a fantasy league. Generally speaking, the players with the most quality starts are also those that obtain the most wins on a yearly basis. So what is the benefit to using one more than the other?

The case for W over QS:

Technically speaking, a pitcher who throws six innings and allows three earned runs every start would be a valuable commodity in a league which uses QS as a category. This pitcher in question however would also be sporting a 4.50 ERA, which in the eyes of most analysts is entirely too high to be considered effective (generally speaking an ERA of under 3.20 is considered the ideal). Due to the fact that a pitchers ERA can be much higher than what is considered to be a reasonable standard and still provide worth, some experts believe that a QS is too easy to obtain, and argue that the definition of a QS should be changed to 7 innings rather than 6, or 2ER rather than 3. Even though I personally agree that allowing an earned run every other inning isn’t particularly effective per se, since the statistic has been around for almost 30 years, I doubt that it will change overnight.

QS’s are also much easier to obtain than wins. As an example, ESPN’s 2012 pitching projections forecasted that 14 starting pitchers would accumulate more than 24 QS during the baseball season. Those same projections didn’t place any pitcher above 19 wins (Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander were tied at 19). Since QS’s are easier to obtain than W’s, it is also easier to find a pitcher off of the waiver wire who may help with that category. This in theory would make it easier for a fantasy manager to build a successful staff of effective starting pitchers, while allowing them to focus more specifically on hitting categories.The amount of wins that one MLB team’s pitching staff may accrue for a baseball team is a finite number (generally speaking 40-60, depending on the success of the team. Phillies had ~ 65). Since a pitcher can be credited for a QS even in the event of a loss, there will naturally be a higher number in the market.

Also, the QS category somewhat works against pitchers who tend to go deeper into games but may allow an additional earned run. From a statistics viewpoint, a pitcher who throws a complete game (9 innings) but only allows 4 earned runs has an ERA of 4.00, lower than the 4.50 standard for a QS, but they will not earn a point in the category due to allowing too many earned runs. This counteracts the notion that a QS is an accurate assessment of a pitcher's effectiveness.

The case for QS over W:

The easiest argument against using W as a category is fairly straightforward. A pitcher can perform brilliantly and not be credited with a win, and can be absolutely dreadful and squeak out a win. Case in point? Opening night of 2012 Felix Hernandez pitched against the might of the Oakland Athletics lineup in Japan (yes, that was sarcasm). King Felix finished with the following stat line:

8.0 IP 5H 1ER 0BB 6K

Essentially he held the other team to one earned run all game, but didn’t get credit for a win because Seattle’s offense is one of the worst in the league. On the other hand, we can take a look at the flip-side of the coin. Ivan Nova had a recent start against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim where he posted the following stat line:

6.0IP 8H 4ER 2BB 8K

Nova went on to get credit for the win, despite allowing 3 more ER in 2 less innings and not pitching nearly as well.

Since a pitcher can theoretically throw very poorly and still accrue a W, (after all, as long as you give up less runs than the other pitcher, you’re in line for a W if you pitch more than 5 innings), it isn’t a very good measure of a pitcher’s overall effectiveness.

Baseball writers have also started to shy away from using W as the be-all, end-all pitching statistic. The easiest example of this would be examining the Cy Young voting. Over the course of 2001-2008, the average number of W for a Cy Young winner in the American League was 20.75. In 2009 the trend bucked downwards when Zach Grienke of the Kansas City Royals won it with only 16 W, but his other statistics (2.16 ERA, 242 Ks) were incredibly dominant. In 2010 Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young with only 13 wins, but with a 2.27 ERA and 232 Ks. Due to the fact that fans and writers have begun to acknowledge that W’s are (for the most part) out of the pitcher’s control the majority of the time, the practice of solely using W’s to measure a pitcher’s effectiveness is being discarded.

In my estimation, Wins more effectively measures the prowess of a team’s hitters rather than the pitchers itself. Quality Starts more accurately measures the skills of the pitcher. To provide an example, if a team wins 11-10 and at the end of the game both pitchers go the distance, the “winning” pitcher could have a 9.0IP 10ER statline. Is that truly effective? Not necessarily. QS more accurately measures what the pitcher actually allows to happen due to him either performing well or poorly.

Quality Starts also takes into account a team’s defense as well, since it is only based off of earned runs. Unearned runs won’t count against a pitcher. Not all teams are blessed to have a stellar defense like the Tampa Bay Rays, some have to put up with bonehead outfielders like Logan Morrison behind them who turn routine “can of corn” fly balls into an adventure. Since errors are something which the pitcher has no inherent control over (other than his own errors, of course) this is another reason why QS’s more reflect the pitcher specifically, rather than the team as a whole with W’s.

Additionally, a pitcher may be unlucky enough to be going against a fellow ace like Halladay or Verlander when they are locked in. Trying to pitch against someone who goes 8.0 IP and only allows one run or two isn't the fault of the pitcher, its just dumb luck. The opposition has an effect on a W, but not a QS, which more measures the pitcher.

Conclusion

Bottom line? Although it is easier to accrue a quality start than a win, and although the definition of what is truly “quality” or not could use some tweaking, using quality starts instead of wins is a more precise means of interpreting value and success for starting pitchers effectiveness in fantasy baseball. Wins are a highly random endeavour dependent upon luck, defense, a team’s offense and the opposing pitcher’s outing. Quality starts measure purely how many runs a pitcher allowed over the course of an outing, which is a true measurement of how effective they were in that outing, and in a season.

4/16/2012- Welcome to Roto Wizard !

Good afternoon everyone,

Welcome to the Roto Wizard website ! My blog is going to be a collection of thoughts and observations about the current fantasy sports season, be it baseball or football. Currently I don't partake in fantasy hockey, golf, NASCAR, or any other sport, so I'm going to stick with the "big 2" for the meantime.

This is my first foray into the blog-sphere as well, so I'm going to learn quite a bit of it on the go. I'll have to apologize in advance if the website isn't fully functional yet, it was just created this morning! Feel free to provide any recommendations about the website, or contact me with any fantasy-related questions which you may have. I also have a co-contributor Ed Cullen (I promise that he isn't the vampire from the movies, ladies) who will be posting his thoughts occasionally on the blog.

To give a bit of background on my fantasy sports career, I've been involved in both baseball and football leagues for the past six years. I currently am the commissioner of a league in each sport, and have taken the trophy home in both multiple times. I typically play in head-to-head formats, although I've opened my eyes to the older (and more simpler) world of rotisserie baseball this season. Both my baseball and football leagues are 12 team auction style formats, which is what I will typically cater my advice and posts towards.

In the past year and a half I've really gotten more involved in the fantasy sports world. Rather than just listen to a podcast or read a draft magazine, I've recently been contacting the leading members of the industry either over the phone (I'm a regular caller on Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive" show hosted by Kyle Elfrink, Ray Flowers and Kay Adams) or via twitter. Some of my biggest influences thusfar are: Ron Shandler, Scott Pianowski, Keith Law, Matthew Berry and Ray Flowers.

I know that getting involved in the industry is a tough undertaking, but I believe that I'm up for the challenge. Fantasy sports have been a passion of mine for quite some time, so getting to share my love of the industry with other people is really a dream come true.

To contact me, please either tweet me @Roto_Wizard or by e-mail at RotoWizard01@yahoo.com

I'm going to attempt to create my first post later on this afternoon, so consider this one a mere drop in the pool of what is to come. I can't wait to get this party started.

Allakazam,

~ The Roto Wizard