Thursday, May 10, 2012

How to determine when to cut bait: Struggling Stars




Money in the bank! It's like taking candy from a baby! Many of you may have had these thoughts cross your path during the early stages of your draft this year. There he was, on your team. Like Gollum's ring, he was your own. Your ppreecciiouss!! That stud that you went all-in on. He had been consistent his entire career, and all of the other fools in the league are going to bow down to your managerial skills. He was going to be the savior to guide your team to a fantasy championship, he was going to hit .325 with 40 homers and 120 RBIs.

::Flash forward to May 10th::



What the hell happened? 

Many of those same managers are now tearing their hair out in frustration that the same players who were supposed to be studs are absolutely killing their team. Although it's still relatively early in the season, many of the players who were projected in the top 20 overall have struggled mightly (headlined by someone whose name rhymes with Shalbert Drojols). What is a manager supposed to do? How long should someone wait on one of their stars before pulling the trigger on a trade or even going so far as to drop them entirely?

Fear not, for the Roto-Wizard is here with his big pointy hat and magic wand to attempt to help.

This isn't fantasy football

First and foremost, everyone needs to understand that patience is a virtue, especially regarding fantasy baseball. Managers who are used to playing fantasy football may have developed a quick trigger finger in regards to their team, and will be chomping at the bit to trade under-performing studs. Some folks don't get used to the drastic difference in length between the fantasy football (usually 13 weeks) and fantasy baseball season (20 week regular season, not including playoffs). Due to the extra two month window, you need to be much more patient with players that get off to a slow start. 

On the other hand, if you know that a manager is apt to be rash and release players who are struggling and doesn't have the patience to let them develop, you might be able to work this to your advantage by using the classic buy-low, sell-high philosophy. Trading for a player when their value is at their lowest is a very smart idea, especially since what you will need to give up for them will be greatly reduced.

Experts aren't always correct

One of the pre-draft resources that I pretty much swear by is Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster. Along with having very good projections for most of the players that are fantasy-relevant (both current players and prospects), there is also a section of the book dedicated to "Gaming Research Abstracts", which are articles usually a page or two in length about a particular topic. 

Shandler wrote one himself this year that caught my eye called "The Science of the First Round", which broke down the likelihood of a player who was projected to be in the top 15 actually reaching that mark. The truth was pretty alarming. Here are some highlights of the article:

  • Two-thirds of players finishing in the Top 15 were not in the Top 15 the previous year 
  • Of those who were first-timers, fewer than 15% repeat in the first round the following year
  • Established superstars who finish in the top 15 are not guaranteed to repeat
The article goes on to suggest that as a fantasy manager, you should trust your gut with players that you feel will bring you top value, despite their pre-season average draft position (ADP). Players who have career years are doomed to regress somewhat, and that you should anticipate lower numbers, both from coming back down to Earth, and from age.

Fact is, experts aren't always correct. If I take a snap shot of how ESPN's top 15 players are currently doing, some are struggling mightily.

Albert Pujols (Projected 2nd overall) .198 AVG, 10 R, 1 HR, 11 RBI
Jose Bautista (Projected 5th overall) .182 AVG, 16 R, 5 HR, 15 RBI
Robinson Cano (Projected 7th overall) .270 AVG, 17 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI
Jacoby Ellsbury (Projected 8th overall) .192 AVG, 4 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI
Justin Upton (Projected 9th overall) .235 AVG, 22 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI
Adrian Gonzalez (Projected 14th overall) .279 AVG, 16 R, 2 HR, 19 RBI

A lot of "studs" are off to slow starts, whether it be to injuries or other factors. Looking at this list above (save for Ellsbury, due to the amount of time that he'll miss with his injury) I have absolutely no doubts that the players will return to their natural productive states.

Players need time to get back into the "swing" of the season, or recover from injuries

I probably could have told you that Pujols would struggle with his first foray into the American League, especially during the month of April. He hadn't seen any of these pitchers before, he had to move his family across the country to live in a completely new city, the talent level was higher than the National League (I'm sorry, but it is overall) and he had to get used to playing on an entirely new team. 

Players often need time to adjust to changes in both their life. Prime example? Pablo Sandoval struggled with an ugly child custody suit and had a terrible year in 2010, only to bounceback in 2011 and regain form.  It took a DL stint for Joey Votto to get back into form after the death of his father. Life happens. If your star is struggling, and you know that it isn't due to an injury, keep an eye on what else might be an adjustment outside of baseball. Players are only human. Just like me and you- except with huge muscles and a boatload of money.

Players who start the year off with a minor injury might need several weeks to pull it all together. Justin Upton is just now starting to hit the ball well after he struggled in the beginning of 2012 with a thumb injury. 
Adrian Gonzalez is working on getting his swing back into form, after coming off of shoulder surgery. His ability to not have a ton of "follow through" on his swing sapped his power, so he has been in the process of fine-tuning it to get everything back.

Bottom line? Make sure to give players who have adjustments (both in and out of baseball) time to get their heads and swings straight!

Some players are just slow starters

I could pretty much just type the name "Mark Teixeira" here and close the section, right?




For those of you who haven't had Maddening Mark (as I like to refer to him as) on your team previously, he pretty much disappears for the majority of April and May each year, only to turn into a one man wrecking crew by the time the fantasy playoffs get here. Adam LaRoche is another historically slow starter. It is never a bad idea to see if your stud has a history of starting off slow only to turn it on late.


So just how long should you wait?

Its very hard to point to a specific date and proclaim "If your player is still doing poorly by X date, you should look to drop or trade him". Obviously some factors need to be taken into consideration:

Generally, the higher that you drafted someone (or in the case of auction leagues, the more money that you spent on them) the longer you should wait. This is ESPECIALLY true regarding starting pitchers, who only really toe the mound once every 4th or 5th day. Unlike positional players, I find that they tend to take longer to get adjusted into the season. As a rule of thumb, I generally think something along the following lines:

  • Players who were rated in the pre-season top 25 I'd wait until at least mid June to move them
  • Players rated between 26-75 I'd wait until late May to move
  • Players rated from 75-150 I'd wait until mid May to move
In auction leagues (operating on a $260 budget and I'll assume a 10-12 team league since they are the most common):
  • If you spent $40+ dollars on the player, I'd wait until at least mid June to move them
  • If you spent $30-40 I'd wait until late May
  • If you spent $20 I'd wait until mid May
This of course assumes that your league isn't like mine where the stud players go in the $50+ range, which isn't normal. Auctions are a little harder to state according to dollar values since each should be treated as a separate entity. League rules and keepers play a part in values, so I stress the fact that the above is a very, very loose interpretation.

Also, keep in mind the following factors:
  1. Size DOES Matter -The smaller the league, the less time that you have to wait until you drop or trade an underperforming player. On the other hand, the larger the league the more time that I'd wait with a player to turn it around.
  2. Keeper Leagues - are a whole different breed of animal, especially with rookies who are struggling. I'll go with the example of Matt Moore this year. Remember how I said that if a person is experiencing some sort of change or transition that you will need to allow more time for the adjustment to occur? This is ESPECIALLY true in the case of a rookie, and I can't stress that enough. Making the jump from AA or AAA ball to the majors is an absolute HUGE adjustment talent-wise, so I'd wait on those players much longer. You don't want to be the idiot that drops Stephen Strasburg because you were impatient with him. 
  3. Trust your gut - You might notice something that really bothers you about a particular player, or you might know that someone else in your league would still pay through the moon to acquire one of your struggling stars. Everyone in my eyes is tradeable, but it has to be for the right price. 


Bottom line? PLEASE BE PATIENT!! Trust me when I say that it is much more gratifying to hold onto a stud and see him turn it around, rather than sell low and see someone else in your league reap the benefits. 

If you are still struggling with the idea of getting rid of a player, please feel free to send me a tweet or e-mail (my contact information is at the top of the page) and I'll be happy to let you know my opinion.

Best of luck,

~ The Roto Wizard

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Fantasy Baseball Trades - Hints and Tips




Hello fellow fantasy baseball junkies,

One of the most commonly asked questions that I've received on both my blog and by e-mail is what my opinion is on a particular trade, and who to target for a particular trade. Seeing as how there was so much interest in the topic, I wanted to provide a handy set of guidelines which I use to analyze a trade from A to Z, starting with what to do before you propose one, who to trade with, and what to offer. I'll then follow that up with a breakdown of how to evaluate a trade and if it benefits both managers.

1. What to do before you offer a trade - 

In order to benefit the most from a trade, you need to know first the strengths and weaknesses of your own team


I can't stress this enough. Before you attempt to contact other managers in your league about either trading or picking up a player, you need to always have a firm grasp on where you stand compared to the rest of your league, position by position. In fantasy baseball, there is such a thing as having "too much" at a certain spot, especially because ignoring a category or position can potentially be the death of your season, both in roto and head to head leagues. This is just one of the reasons why I usually tend to lean towards the "spreading the risk" strategy while drafting players, over the "stars and scrubs" philosophy.

Using one of my own teams as an example, lets look at how you could determine what you are strong and weak in. In a twelve team head to head keeper league, I have the following starting outfielders:

Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson, B.J. Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Swisher, and Chris Young.

For a twelve team league, that is pretty loaded. We do an auction draft, so I was able to acquire and focus on a strong set of outfielders who are all in their prime, most of which don't have an injury history, strong production, and all (save Swisher) are potential 20/20 (if not higher) candidates. I would categorize this as a position of strength for myself. Also keep in mind that what positions you are "strong" in is also dependent on league size. This same mix of players wouldn't be as strong in an eight team league, but would be ridiculous in a 16 team league.

On the other hand, I have the following relief pitchers:

Alfredo Aceves, Santiago Casilla, David Robertson, and Sergio Santos.

I'd categorize this as one of the few weaknesses that I have in this particular league. Aceves will probably lose his job after the All-Star break when Bailey comes back, so I'll have to go dumpster diving for saves. Casilla hasn't closed for a full season before. Robertson has been primarily used as a set-up man to Rivera in years past, and Santos was placed on the DL earlier this year with shoulder tightness.

Knowing what you have available to trade and where you need to concentrate is a key element to trading. Looking at this team, I don't need outfield help, but could probably use help with a relief pitcher down the road, if these folks don't perform.

If you are going to trade, find a partner who needs what you have, and has what you need


This sounds pretty simple, right? You'd be surprised how many managers don't realize this however. Offering someone who already has a ton of strong starting pitchers Jarod Weaver probably won't entice him very much. Offering that same manager Robinson Cano when he's currently using Aaron Hill might catch his eye though.

Likewise, make sure that you are going after a player that you actually want. Don't pigeon-hole yourself in a corner to get fleeced by someone who is only accepting the trade because you offered too much. Try and place yourself outside of the trade and put yourself in the eyes of another manager. Does the trade look fair on paper? Always offer a trade which will benefit both parties. After all, why should they accept a garbage trade that you throw their way?

2. How to offer a trade- 


Creating a trade that will work for both parties


Once you've found someone that will be willing to part with a player that you wish to acquire, its time to figure out how to offer something that they will want as fair compensation. You don't want to offer a trade which slaps the other person in the face, but you also don't want to give up too much. Here are some thoughts:

1. How much is acquiring this new player going to benefit you? There is a big difference between going from  Lucas Duda to Albert Pujols at 1B, compared with going from Joey Votto to Albert Pujols. If the trade is going to significantly benefit your team, you can bet that the other manager is going to ask for something that significantly benefits them back !

2. What is the talent level of the players involved? Again, using the previous example of Lucas Duda.. if you are only going to target a small upgrade to lets say Adam LaRoche or Chris Davis, then you know that lower-tier players are going to be involved with the trade. If you are attempting to trade for a tier one player like Miguel Cabrera or Roy Halladay, you can bet your bottom dollar that you will probably have to dish out equal compensation back.

3. How desperate are the managers involved in making a trade? Often times managers who have a player that is struggling are absolutely desperate to get rid of him and let that player be someone else's headache. They might be willing to sell "fifty cents on the dollar" so to speak, just to get rid of them. The same rings true for the manager attempting to acquire a player. I'll give you another example.

In that same 12 team league, earlier this season I traded away Martin Prado for Matt Wieters. I was contacted by the manager who owned Kevin Youkilis and didn't have a ton of depth at third base, so he made that offer.

Looking at my team, I already had Brett Lawrie and Mike Aviles, so I was able to part with Prado.

I currently had Geovany Soto at catcher, who was struggling mightly and was probably the weakest position on my team. Wieters was a significant upgrade over Soto, so this deal made sense to me. Seeing how the other owner wasn't prepared for Youkilis' injury, he was somewhat desperate to acquire a player that could help him out.

4. Examine positional scarcity - Some managers completely forget that a top tier second baseman might be worth more than a top tier first baseman, due to the fact that the size of fantasy-relevant players is much smaller. There is a reason that Robinson Cano is widely considered a first round draft pick in most formats. He performs much better than the remaining players at his position, and after the top 4-5 second baseman, the talent level falls off DRAMATICALLY.

In terms of position scarcity, here is my list: 2B, C, SS, 3B, 1B, RP, OF, SP

Using that as a template, a catcher who hits 20HRs will be more scarce than a 1B who hits 20HRs. Due to that fact, the catcher may be considered at a different level when the chips hit the table.

5. Look at the other teams needs - If you happen to notice that the other team is weak at stolen bases, Dee Gordon might be worth more to him than normal. If you notice that they lack power, suddenly Carlos Pena becomes more interesting. Not only target the position that they need, but the categories as well. This will make it much easier to justify the trade

6. What type of manager are they? Using that twelve team league again as an example, having played with those managers for a number of years, I can tell you that not all managers will target the same type of trades. Certain managers will over-value young prospects because we are in a keeper league. Others will prefer to obtain a player who is a veteran and has been consistent. Some managers care about a player with an injury history. Others don't. Making a trade in a league where you have played with the managers for a number of years is much easier than attempting to pull off a trade in a re-draft league where you haven't met anyone before.

3. Evaluating the trade after it happens- 


The best way (and the simplest as well) to evaluate if a trade is "good" or not is if it answers the following question:

Does the trade benefit both parties involved, and are they both happy with the trade?

If so, then the trade is probably a "good" trade.

Its extraordinarily difficult to determine in a vacuum if a trade is good without knowing an absolute TON of information, such as:

A. The size of the league
B. If it is a keeper or re-draft league (hot prospects have DRAMATICALLY increased value in keeper leagues)
C. What both teams rosters look like, both before and after the trade
D. If the trade is lopsided (aka a 2 for 1), what player will be either dropped or added from the waiver wire to offset things

Again, in order for a trade to be considered "good" in my mind, the following criteria needs to be met:

1. Neither player benefits significantly more than the other
2. Both parties agreed to the trade and felt that their teams are better now than they were before
3. None of the rules of the league are broken in the trade
4. There was no "collusion", meaning that one player isn't giving up all of their stars to intentionally have a bad team  in order for the other team to win.


As reference on player scarcity, I'd highly recommend reading the "Measuring Scarcity" article that Derek Carty wrote for the Fantasy Baseball Index Magazine for the 2011-2012 issue. That along with Ron Shandler's "Baseball Prospectus" are my top-2 magazines that I always purchase for the fantasy baseball season.

Feel free to send me any trades that you wish to analyze! I can be added on Twitter @Roto_Wizard, or reached by e-mail at RotoWizard01@yahoo.com

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Drinking the Health Potion - Injury Updates for 5/2

In order to make it a more streamlined read, I'll cut down on the analysis and make this a little more bulleted.

Players who were recently put on the DL:



  1. Evan Longoria (3B, Rays) - Evan suffered a hamstring injury while sliding into 2nd base on 5/1, he is unfortunately expected to miss the next 6-8 weeks. Keep in mind that hamstring injuries also tend to linger.
  2. Michael Pineda (SP, Yankees) - Pineda experienced shoulder tightness during the offseason and started the year on the DL. He was initially expected to make a return to the ballclub sometime in May, but after a further examination involving a dye-contrast MRI, it was discovered that he has a torn labrum and is out for the season. I'd drop him if you had him, except for in keeper leagues.
  3. Jason Bay (OF, Mets) - Bay was placed on the DL on 4/24 because he has a non-displaced rib fracture, an injury which he suffered while diving into the wall in left field attempting to make a catch. Although he initially started off slow, Bay was picking it up with the bat before he was injured. I'd expect him to miss an additional week after the minimum stint.
  4. Daniel Hudson (SP, Diamondbacks) - Hudson was placed on the 15 day DL with a "shoulder impingement" on 4/21, and has been told to wait until at least May 8th to begin throwing again. The club indicated that he'd need at least 2 rehab starts, so I'd expect to not see him until the end of May/early June.
  5. Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Nationals) - Zimmerman was placed on the 15 day DL on 4/27 after he experienced some "shoulder tightness" which was causing him issues with swinging the bat. He is looking to be activated for 5/6, as soon as he is eligible.

Updates on existing injuries:

  1. Kyle Farnsworth (RP, Rays) - In a relatively unexpected move which is great for Fernando Rodney owners, the Rays moved Farnsworth from the 15 to 60 day DL, Don't expect to see Farnsworth until at least the all-star break. With the turmoil of the Rays closer position I'd stay away from this if at all possible.
  2. Ryan Howard (1B, Phillies) - Howard was recently cleared to begin baseball activities again on 4/28. Although he isn't expected to begin swinging a bat for the next few days, he's allowed to take grounders and begin moving around more now. Expect a late May/early June return.
  3. Drew Storen (RP, Nationals) - Storen has begun to move his arm freely and expects to start being allowed to throw within the next few days. No timetable has been updated for him, but most injury experts expect him to return prior to the all-star break.
  4. Lance Berkman (1B/OF, Cardinals) - Berkman has been on the DL with an injured calf muscle which he attempted to play through and then re-aggravated. He hasn't begun a rehab assignment or ran on it since. I'd expect a late May return.
  5. Brett Gardner (OF, Yankees) - Although Gardner was initially only expected to make the minimum stint on the DL, it appears that the Yankees are going to push for him to play in a few rehab games prior to coming back. I'd expect to see him early next week (5/8 or so)
  6. Doug Fister (SP, Tigers) - Fister has been sidelined since his first start in April with a rib muscle strain. The Tigers are planning on him coming back to make his first start on 5/7.
  7. Ryan Dempster (SP, Cubs) - Dempster will return to the normal rotation on 5/3
  8. Carlos Quentin (OF, Padres) - Quentin hasn't played a game yet so far this year after going on the DL in the off-season to recover from knee-surgery. He's expected to start a rehab assignment at AAA on 5/3 and is expected to spend at least a week there. I'd guess for a 5/14 callup.
  9. Chase Utley (2B, Phillies) - Expect Utley to finally get called up sometime during next week after spending a week getting some AB's in the minors.
  10. Chris Carpenter (SP, Cardinals) - All quiet on the western front, unfortunately. Carpenter says that his arm feels better but doesn't have a projected date to start rehabbing, let alone come back for a rehab assignment. Expect him to return after the all-star break. 
  11. Michael Morse (1B/OF, Nationals) - Morse has been the source of much frustration for managers who drafted him. After only expected to miss a week or two, he suffered a setback and is now targeting a June 1st return date. 
  12. Carl Crawford (OF, Red Sox) - After starting his rehab, Crawford's elbow flared up again and he was recently diagnosed by the famous fantasy doctor of death (James Andrews) as having a sprained ulnar ligament. He's supposed to miss an additional 3 months and won't return until August at the earliest. You may want to consider dropping him all-out in non-keeper leagues.
  13. Cliff Lee (SP, Phillies) - Lee's oblique will keep him sidelined at least another week. He isn't supposed to currently go on a rehab assignment, but throw bullpen sessions instead. Look for another 2 weeks, so returning around 5/15 or so.
  14. Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, Red Sox) - Expect Ellsbury to miss at least the next 6-8 weeks with his shoulder sprain from his collision at 2nd base. 
Good luck to everyone this week !